The Bengals are starting over at running back. Well, sort of.
Joe Mixon remains “right now,” as Katie Blackburn said three times when asked about him at the league meetings.
His next steps involve the conclusion of the aggravated menacing case refiled against him by the Cincinnati Police Department and negotiation of a pay cut the team is expected to ask him to either accept or be let go.
Samaje Perine bolted for Denver, uninterested in being relegated to third-down and two-minute situations when presented with another option by new Broncos coach Sean Payton.
What’s left in the Bengals’ backfield?
Specifically: Mixon and cautious optimism around 2019 sixth-round pick Trayveon Williams, plus 2021 sixth-rounder Chris Evans, who fell out of favor behind Williams at the end of last season.
Generally: A blank slate.
The Bengals need the position to evolve. The offense has done just that in the last two years with the rise of Joe Burrow and the addition of new protectors up front.
The Bengals pass. A lot. For good reason and don’t hide it.
When they run, philosophy shifted away from the nimble outside zone scheme expected to transition from Los Angeles with Zac Taylor to a powerful, downhill, shotgun run scheme that emphasizes efficiency over home runs on the ground.
1. Keep Burrow upright and able to scan the field.
2. Avoid negative runs and stay in good down and distance.
3. Profit.
The nature of how the Bengals’ passing game evolved last season, however, opens up a new skill that needs to improve dramatically. Backs must be better at turning checkdowns into explosive plays. Defenses committed to playing two deep safeties while scared of Burrow and his receivers creating explosive plays over the top left Burrow with a bevy of checkdowns. Once he started taking them — and doing so as quickly as any quarterback in football — Cincinnati created numerous opportunities for the running backs to make plays in space.
They didn’t do so nearly enough.
Mixon finished 57th out of 62 qualifying running backs in PFF elusive rating, which weighs the rate of missed tackles forced with yards after contact.
Among the 11 running backs to catch at least 50 passes last season, Mixon ranked in the middle of the pack in receptions per missed tackle and yards per catch.
The Bengals offense needs a back in the mold of Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler (more on him momentarily). Now, those molds are rare and often expensive in terms of money or draft capital. If the back can’t be electric catching the ball out of the backfield, he’d better be at least OK at it and know how to pass block. Hence, why the Bengals valued Perine in the role he carved out.
With him leaving for Denver and all the questions lingering above Mixon on the field, off the field and in the balance sheet, where do the Bengals go to find the necessary evolution of the position?
It starts in a week and a half.
This draft runs deep in midround prospects. The full devaluing of the position has taken over the league, with even the late adopters on board with not paying or drafting even the great ones early. In the NFL, always follow the money, and running back has the smallest franchise tag number of any position ($10.1 million).
The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season featuring seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco. Houston’s Dameon Pierce and Atlanta’s Tyler Allgeier received offensive rookie of the year votes as fourth- and fifth-round picks, respectively. No team has ridden an expensive bell cow to a championship in a football generation.
When needing a running back, the Bengals have taken one in the second round on repeat with Giovani Bernard (2013), Jeremy Hill (2014) and Mixon (2017). Doing so again would mark an aggressive play and one that doesn’t necessarily fit how the league has evolved.
Meanwhile, this draft lends itself to the midround selection. Dane Brugler gave projections of the third or fourth round to 13 running backs. Four more have a fifth-round tag. Those numbers are inflated over recent groups.
RBs with a projection of third or fourth round (fifth in parentheses):
• 2020: 9 (4)
• 2021: 6 (5)
• 2022: 8 (6)
• 2023: 13 (4)
Not all hit the high points the Bengals’ style demands.
The Bengals will resist using a top pick on a running back, but every player has the right price. As the draft progresses, they must figure out what warts they are willing to accept and when to accept them. The emphasis on efficiency allows a willingness to sacrifice long speed to hit home runs. A poor 40 time is fine when connected to an acceptable 10-yard split.
But to project midround success stories, look no further than PFF’s elusive rating for college backs.
Since 2020, 12 drafted running backs have posted at least 4.3 yards per carry and 900 yards from scrimmage in their first NFL season. Of those, only one ranked outside the top 10 in college football in elusive rating their final season.
This might sound obvious, but a back who makes people miss and gains yards after contact typically translates. But when trying to pinpoint late-round success or avoid early round failures, the number has proved a north star — one too often not followed by general managers.
Among those in the top 10 of this year’s crop, here’s a look at the best Bengals fits with Brugler’s round projection and 2022 elusive rating out of 58 draft-eligible qualifiers.
First
Bijan Robinson, Texas (5 foot 11, 215 pounds, ER: 2). Brugler’s No. 6 player is very unlikely to slide all the way to No. 28, even in the world of devalued running backs. Even if he did, it’s not a slam dunk the Bengals would go that direction. He’s not Saquon Barkley, but he’s one of the best prospects to come out in years. Does it all. Would elevate any team. Positional value and draft depth cloud the picture.
Second
Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (6-0, 214, ER: 9). Checks every box. Maybe not as dynamic as a first-round talent, but well-rounded catching the ball out of the backfield, finding success on the second level and showing vision to create efficiency and blocking. He would almost certainly be the Week 1 starter if the Bengals hit the second-round RB button again.
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Third-Fourth
Roschon Johnson, Texas (6-0, 219, ER: 1). Robinson’s backup starred in limited opportunities and plays like Perine. He’s solid in pass protection, ranked near the top of college football in elusive rating every season, including the top spot this year. He’s efficient and strong as a ball carrier. He didn’t transfer despite Robinson coming to Austin but instead embraced special teams and whatever role was available on offense.
Kendre Miller, TCU (5-11, 215, ER: 10). Led college football in elusive rating in 2021 and would play in the role of Mixon. A question exists about his willingness in pass protection, and his sample size as a receiver is small, but there’s enough to project he could shine in Cincinnati.
Beyond those four fits, there’s a group ranked in the top 10 that doesn’t track as directly toward the Bengals for numerous reasons.
DeWayne McBride, of UAB, has only five career receptions. Tyjae Spears, of Tulane, has significant medical concerns with his history of knee injuries. Chris Rodriguez Jr., of Kentucky, has minimal receiving and blocking experience. Tank Bigsby, of Auburn, struggled to create big plays as a receiver (6 yards per catch). Keaton Mitchell, of East Carolina, is only 179 pounds.
There is a trio of backs ranking just outside the top 10 in elusive rating that deserves inclusion on the radar due to receiving grades among the best in class.
The first is among the most intriguing players through a Bengals lens in the entire draft.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (5-9, 199, ER: 13). He’s electric catching the ball out of the backfield. In a world where the Bengals want the Kamara mold, he’s a replica. The checkdown suddenly becomes an explosive weapon. One could make an argument, for what the Bengals do, he almost would be a better fit than Robinson, except not a three-down back. Still, a tantalizing thought and one that would better enter the equation if Cincinnati traded out of the first round. It’s unlikely he slides to 60.
Eric Gray, Oklahoma (5-9, 207, ER: 14). Excellent catching the ball, devastating moves at the second level and in space. The question becomes one of size and an inability to hold up as a pass protector. When would he play in that case? Still, an early Day 3 projection puts him on the board.
Kenny McIntosh, Georgia (6-0, 204, ER: 15). His receiving chops are so impressive, some scouts think he could transition to receiver. Solid in pass protection, just not as instinctive as a runner. He should be available on Day 3 for value.
Other names make sense for the Bengals in the bloated midrounds. Players like workhorse Chase Brown, of Illinois, and speedy Israel Abanikanda, of Pittsburgh, possess valued traits on Day 3 but don’t have the elusive rating of the above group that correlates.
The draft, specifically if a flawed Day 3 pick entered the fray, won’t fill the position on its own. Mixon could still reprise a role. Williams showed flashes last season and could rise to take over the snaps vacated by Perine.
Rumors connected the Bengals to Ezekiel Elliott, but those were unfounded. Ekeler would be an enticing fit, but any trade with the Chargers would likely require an extension for the 28-year-old back, and the Bengals wouldn’t have much interest in that. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has fallen out of favor in Kansas City, but the 2020 first-round pick and LSU backfield mate with Burrow remains on the Chiefs’ roster. Perhaps he shakes loose at some point, and if he did, a landing spot in Cincinnati would make sense.
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Any number of other veterans could latch on with a veteran minimum contract as the offseason wears on. Kareem Hunt, J.D. McKissic and Kenyan Drake are among the players still unsigned.
Barring a surprising early round selection, a multitude of options can be thrown into camp to see what spits out. That’s the way of the position now and one the Bengals appear comfortable with moving forward.
But reforming the position to be one with a better fit for who the Bengals have become starts with getting the pick right this draft. Balancing resistance to use premium draft picks on a nonpremium position while also properly adjusting to the evolution of the offense will be one of the most interesting storylines of draft weekend for the Bengals.
(Top photo of Jahmyr Gibbs: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
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