The script for the top of the 2020 NHL draft seems straightforward.
One of the eight teams that loses in the qualifying round of the playoffs will win the second phase of the lottery and select Alexis Lafreniere, virtually everybody’s projected top pick.
The Los Angeles Kings will then select either center Quinton Byfield or winger Tim Stuetzle at No. 2. The Ottawa Senators at No. 3 will take who is available between Byfield and Stuetzle.
The Detroit Red Wings select at No. 4. This is where the guessing begins, but defenseman Jamie Drysdale makes the most sense.
Scripts have a way of changing. We saw that in 2019 when Steve Yzerman, in his first draft as Red Wings general manager, pulled a surprise by taking defenseman Moritz Seider of Germany at No. 6, ahead of centers Dylan Cozens and Trevor Zegras, one of whom many anticipated Detroit would choose.
It is still way early in the evaluation process, but one year later that appears to have been a wise decision.
Seider is a big, mobile, puck-moving defenseman (6-4, 207) who had a fine rookie season in AHL Grand Rapids at age 18 and a strong World Junior Championship showing with Germany. He is the Red Wings’ top prospect, one who might be NHL-ready next season.
The Red Wings have a good core of 25-and-under NHL forwards in Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi and Robby Fabbri and some promising prospects up front.
Filip Zadina, their 2018 top pick, has played only 37 games but is inching closer to establishing himself in the league. Evgeny Svechnikov, their 2015 top pick, will have an opportunity to prove himself from the start of next season. Michael Rasmussen, their 2017 top pick, could return to the NHL next season after a year of development with the Griffins.
Joe Veleno, Detroit’s second first-round pick in 2018 (30th overall), has a year of AHL experience. Jonatan Berggren, taken three spots later, has flashed tremendous skills in Sweden despite two injury-plagued seasons.
The Red Wings’ prospect pool on defense is not as strong.
This high in the draft teams generally select the best player on their board, forward or defenseman. That is what Yzerman said he will do.
Forward options likely will include centers Cole Perfetti of Saginaw (OHL) and Marco Rossi of Ottawa (OHL) and wingers Lucas Raymond (Frolunda, Sweden), Alexander Holtz (Djurgardens, Sweden) and Jack Quinn (Ottawa, OHL).
But unless the Red Wings feel one of those players is clearly superior to Drysdale, the defenseman from Erie (OHL) appears the best option.
Drysdale (5-11, 175) is described by analysts as having a good combination of puck-movement skills and defensive acumen. He skates well and is aggressive for his size.
“His smarts with the puck and excellent footwork and stick placement help him against bigger players,” Red Line Report said. “Tough to gain the offensive zone on his side of the ice -- keeps his shoulders squared up to puck-carriers and closes gaps perfectly. Extremely dangerous when he has the puck. Calculated passer spreads wealth out to all areas in offensive zone. Utilizes pinpoint accurate snap shots from far out, aiming for areas where teammates can get deflections. Superb skater links together world class moves in all four directions.”
Red Line Report said Drysdale’s style compares to Cale Makar, the 2017 fourth overall pick who has had a strong rookie season with the Colorado Avalanche.
Drysdale in two or three years would join a young defense corps that includes Filip Hronek, who established himself in the NHL this season, and Seider, who seems certain to be with the Red Wings at some point next season, if not at the start. Dennis Cholowski, their 2016 top pick, could be part of the mix if he improves defensively. Gustav Lindstrom could be a capable third-pair defenseman down the road.
Prospects still in juniors, college or Europe include Jared McIsaac, Seth Barton, Kasper Kotkansalo, Albert Johansson and Antti Tuomisto.
There is some depth of prospects on the blue line, but the Red Wings need another defenseman with high-end potential. That could be Drysdale.
More: Steve Yzerman says Red Wings will get ‘great prospect’ with fourth pick
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