SO MUCH OF the NBA's history from the past two decades collides in the Los Angeles Lakers' audacious pairing of Russell Westbrook with LeBron James and Anthony Davis -- yearslong debates swirling together, the most polarizing MVP in recent memory, truisms that have hardened over time to be tested anew.
The first is one of the great James axioms: If he's the best shooter on the floor, you haven't built the right team around him. The Lakers' roster is half-constructed; they have five players, and one of them is Alfonzo McKinnie. They will probably re-sign some or most of their incumbent free agents, only because trading three players for Westbrook leaves them few other choices.
Some of those guys -- Alex Caruso, Wesley Matthews, Markieff Morris -- are solid 3-point shooters at varying volumes. Another -- Talen Horton-Tucker -- is young and fearless enough to expect improvement.
The free agencies of Caruso and Horton-Tucker (a restricted free agent) will be interesting. Both will have multiple suitors, sources said. With limited cap room leaguewide, the full midlevel exception -- worth about $10 million -- will be a powerful tool. Some agents and team executives expect a climate in which teams might offer all or most of the midlevel at the starting gun and demand a quick answer. If some rival does that with Caruso, will the Lakers match or exceed it right away? If they haggle, will it cost them?
The Lakers are heading toward at least testing that James shooting axiom with closing lineups centered around the James/Davis/Westbrook trio. Some of those lineups may even include a rim-tethered center in the mold of Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, and Andre Drummond -- the latter another incumbent free agent. The Lakers can offer Drummond a little more than the veterans minimum, or dip into their taxpayer midlevel exception -- a chip they should probably use on a shooter instead.
The Lakers leaned on smaller Davis-at-center lineups during their run to the 2020 championship when the Houston Rockets and then the Miami Heat (briefly) threatened them. Some featured a shaky-shooting point guard in Rajon Rondo. This is a familiar, title-winning formula.
But Westbrook is different -- a non-shooting point guard who shoots a lot. His introduction may require the Lakers to lean even further toward the Davis-at-center construct. And so one of those other roiling, decadelong storylines rumbles again: How willing are James and Davis to slide down from their preferred positions?
If it feels like we've been having this discussion about James for 15 years, it's because we have. At go time, James and Davis have accepted that shift -- in 2020, and in prior James playoff runs, though the Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers acquired tweener wings (Shane Battier being the most prominent) who jostled against power forwards on defense so James didn't have to. But the Lakers like to overwhelm with size at least in stretches, and so they will probably hunt for a rim-running center again.
The Lakers traded Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and the No. 22 pick in Thursday's draft to snare Westbrook -- plus two second-rounders from the Washington Wizards. They turned three players into one, and are now at risk of losing Dennis Schroder for nothing -- effectively turning four into one.
That outgoing trio wasn't amazing, but they mattered and the Lakers have limited means to replace them. Kuzma hit 36% from deep last season, and made huge strides as an all-around player. Caldwell-Pope was the Lakers' most reliable shooter for two years. Harrell fell out of the postseason rotation, but he's a useful regular-season innings-eater.
THE LAKERS HAD an alternative close to the finish line, sources said: Kuzma and Harrell to Sacramento for Buddy Hield. In that scenario, they could have kept Caldwell-Pope and re-signed Schroder. The Westbrook deal came together fast. At the beginning of draft day, Tommy Sheppard, the Wizards' GM, was discussing other deals based on the premise that Westbrook and Bradley Beal would be together in Washington, sources said.
Hield would have been a nice fit next to James. All shooters are, and Hield is one of the most prolific 3-point shooters ever. He's a defensive liability, but playing for real stakes alongside three demanding personalities -- James, Davis, and Frank Vogel -- would have nudged his effort level. Westbrook is a slight minus defender at this point too, full of sound and fury and snarling lunges, but not signifying all that much.
The Lakers should be a good defensive team as long as Davis and James can play at their recent levels -- James remains quietly incredible on defense -- but the strain on those two grows with every roster retooling.
All told, I'd have probably taken the Schroder/Hield/Caldwell-Pope path over the Westbrook deal -- especially if it would have allowed the Lakers to keep their first-round pick. But if James pushed for this move, then going the other direction requires a tough conversation. That said, people like Rob Pelinka, the Lakers GM, are employed in part because of their ease with tough conversations.
Luxury-tax concerns may have played a part. The Schroder/Hield/Caldwell-Pope pathway might have ended up more expensive than this Westbrook option, depending on Schroder's salary and other factors. Schroder also could have just walked in free agency. This may have been more like an either-or between Westbrook and Hield.
There is some beautiful-mind framework in which the Lakers might still sign-and-trade Schroder and acquire Hield. It's just hard to find it. The Wizards and Kings don't want Schroder, sources said. The Lakers would need a fourth team that does, with assets the Kings want. (The Lakers do avoid the hard cap here by not acquiring a player in a sign-and-trade -- one reason DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry were likely off the board.)
A lot of teams with a need at point guard have cap space to sign Schroder (or some alternative) outright; they don't need to help the Lakers.
If Hield is out of the picture, the Lakers can and will try to turn Schroder into one or two other players -- though that requires Schroder's cooperation. It would be nice if one of those players could shoot 3s.
Look: Spacing isn't everything, and doesn't matter in transition. The Lakers were a dangerous fast-breaking team in their title year, and lost some of that verve last season amid injuries and malaise. Westbrook is verve incarnate. He will rebound and rampage.
The Lakers' half-court offense is their bellwether. They ranked 23rd in points per possession in the half court last season, and 17th in 2020, per Cleaning The Glass. They won it all in 2020 in large part because their half-court offense performed at league-best levels in the playoffs -- often amid blah spacing. Can they do it again?
Cleverness and ferocity in tight confines can compensate for cramped spacing. In Westbrook, James, and Davis, the Lakers have three stars who pressure the rim through quickness and sheer force, and dish slick interior passes. It won't be pretty or modern, but it can work for long stretches. With Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray out most or all of next season, there is no clear favorite in the West. The Lakers can rightfully believe that even with their imperfections, they should make the Finals. James and Davis remain the best healthy duo in the West. That alone can be enough.
James and Davis are used to playing with point guards who don't shoot 3s well or often -- including Schroder and Rondo. The clutter makes every post-up harder; help defenders are always close, the rotations behind double-teams short and easy to execute.
But the difference with Westbrook is less about accuracy, and more about volume. Westbrook shoots all the time. He should probably rank third on this team in shot attempts. That has happened once -- in Westbrook's rookie season, when he finished a hair behind Jeff Green (and way behind Kevin Durant) for the Oklahoma City Thunder. In some subsequent seasons in Oklahoma City and Houston, Westbrook averaged more shots than Durant and James Harden.
That happens because Westbrook needs the ball all the time. He has never done much off the ball aside from offensive rebounding -- which is very valuable. James is ultra-dangerous off the ball, but any team handing lots of possessions to Westbrook over James is making a mistake.
That is the main reason this Big Three does not amplify one another the way others have and do. And that's another of those always-rumbling storylines crescendoing here: the notion, written and spoken about for years, of how dangerous Westbrook might be as a cutter, screener, mover. It is one of the NBA's great unattainable promises.
JAMES AND SCHRODER developed chemistry as pick-and-roll partners, both toggling between ball handler and screener. It's tempting to envision that kind of relationship between James and Westbrook, especially because using Westbrook as screener would keep him in the central action -- and not on the wing, where defenders ignore him to clog the lane. (Davis has improved as a pick-and-roll ball handler in his own right.)
Westbrook has never set more than 68 ball screens in any season -- playoffs and regular season combined -- since Second Spectrum began tracking games in 2013. In five of those seasons, including last year in Washington, Westbrook set fewer than 20 ball screens, per Second Spectrum. Whether for Paul George, Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Harden, or Beal, it is just not something Westbrook has shown interest in doing. And it's not as if the idea of Westbrook as screener has eluded every one of his head coaches.
Maybe a late-career shift to being the third-best player on a LeBron team inspires change.
Early in the Thunder's ascent, Westbrook was a semi-frequent pindown screener for Durant -- with Harden handling up top. Perhaps he can replicate that in the Lakers' pet corner sets, where they have one player (sometimes James) screen for Davis in the corner and then see what pops open.
Westbrook would explode as a cutter on the occasional play scripted out of a timeout in Oklahoma City, but that off-ball activity never carried over into the flow.
The Lakers needed and wanted Westbrook's shot creation. They have been searching for someone to carry the offense when James is on the bench -- to buy James more nights off and on-court rest. A third star is in theory a buffer against postseason injuries to one of the other two. The Brooklyn Nets had a realistic chance to win the title with Durant and Harden -- and Kyrie Irving injured.
I'm not sure Westbrook brings the same security on this team and at this stage of his career. Barring some unexpected roster development, the Lakers would not have enough to win it all with James or Davis hurt. An injury to Westbrook is probably the only star injury they could plausibly survive through multiple late playoff rounds.
History suggests Westbrook is going to take shots from James and Davis, and that a lot of those shots will be bad. Westbrook has hit 40% or worse on long 2s in five straight seasons, per Cleaning The Glass. His mark from the floater range -- just outside the restricted area -- is about the same.
Worryingly, he took more of those shots -- and fewer at the rim -- last season. Only 30% of Westbrook's shots came at the basket in Washington, the lowest share of his career, per Cleaning The Glass. In Houston, almost half his shots came at the basket. Think about why: The Rockets reconfigured their team midway through the season to enable Westbrook's driving game (and Harden's too), trading Clint Capela, mothballing big men, and clearing the lane. The Lakers will not be able to replicate that.
Westbrook has been among the league's highest-volume isolation players, and those plays just haven't yielded enough: about 0.92 points per possession last season when Westbrook shot out of an isolation, or dished to a teammate who fired, per Second Spectrum. Westbrook will be dishing to two Hall of Famers in Los Angeles, but his efficiency on isolations has generally hovered at that level.
Westbrook surged into legitimate All-NBA contention in the second half of that season as he got healthier. He got his handle and turnover rate, alarmingly off-kilter over the first 30 games, under control. He is still a really good player.
The Lakers will get shooting. It just won't be easy with so little to offer. Teams are targeting a lot of shooting wings -- Alec Burks, Reggie Bullock, Danny Green, Doug McDermott -- with all or most of the midlevel exception, sources said. The Lakers can't match that in money, though they can of course offer the allure of L.A. and the title chase. There are some potentially cheaper options -- Garrett Temple, Wayne Ellington, Kent Bazemore, Bryn Forbes, James Ennis III, old friend Avery Bradley -- but they will make less for a reason, and the Lakers have only one midlevel exception.
A ring-chasing, greybeard shooter or two will come for the minimum. The problem is that most ring-chasing, greybeard shooters have slipped so far on defense, it can be hard to play them in the wrong postseason matchup.
There may be no practical difference between the Westbrook Lakers and the now-theoretical Schroder/Hield/Caldwell-Pope Lakers. They may win about the same number of games, and have about the same postseason chances. James and Davis drive everything.
The Schroder/Hield/Caldwell-Pope route just feels a little safer. It brings fewer fit questions. James is maybe the greatest problem-solver in NBA history, both on a possession-by-possession basis and on the zoomed-out level of an entire season and roster. Let's see how he approaches this fascinating new puzzle.
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