Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw to what looks like four first-round wide receivers in his final season at Alabama. But a former SEC rival could be the best fit to unlock Tagovailoa's NFL potential.
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund broke down the best NFL fits for each of the top wide receivers in this year's draft. And for the Miami Dolphins, that pick is former LSU star Ja'Marr Chase.
"Over the past two college football seasons, Pro Football Focus has Chase with the most touchdown receptions of 20-plus yards (14)," Frelund wrote. "Pretty crazy, considering the guy opted out of the 2020 season. In 2019, no college receiver was more open on passes intended to travel 10-plus air yards (as measured by percentage of targets with at least 3 yards to work with). Chase's speed on yards earned after catching his targets featured the least erosion (a proxy for fatigue) between the start and end of games in the SEC -- quite an impressive feat in that conference, particularly in that year. He led the FBS in tight-window receptions (20) and receiving yards on such catches (423), per PFF, while racking up a robust 684 yards after the catch.
"The Fins added Will Fuller in free agency, boosting the potential of their receiving corps to nearly the top half of the league: No. 18, according to my model," Frelund wrote. "Chase would push Miami into the top 12."
As the NFL Draft cycle has gone on, some have felt that Chase has reestablished himself as the draft's top wide receiver prospect despite missing last season. But he isn't the only wide receiver from LSU drawing serious NFL attention. Frelund wrote that Terrace Marshall Jr. also has a strong fit, potentially improving the downfield passing game of a Baltimore Ravens team with Super Bowl aspirations.
"Versatility plus physicality drive this pairing," Frelund wrote of Marshall. "PFF shows that Marshall posted 20 contested catches in 2019 and 2020 (tied for second-most in the SEC during that span), with the 6-foot-3, 205-pounder hauling in a whopping 81.8 percent of such targets (nine of 11) this past season. My models show that his hips are square to the ball (which is a predictor of catching the ball/winning the contested catch) at a top-five percent over the past eight seasons. And his total of seven receiving TDs on targets of 20-plus yards since 2019 is tied for third-most in the SEC, per PFF."
The Dolphins appear to be in a prime spot to land Chase after trading back up to the No. 6 pick after initially dealing the No. 3 pick to the San Francisco 49ers. What about Marshall for the Ravens? It's always difficult to project which players will last until the late first-round—all it takes is one team to value a player higher than the general consensus, but if he's still there at the Ravens' pick at No. 27, he would make a lot of sense.
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April 10, 2021 at 08:23AM
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The best NFL fit for LSU's wide receiver pair - 247Sports
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