Ukriane: Three ways war for Ukraine fit escalate and drag in Nato - BBC.com

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• Frank Gardner
• BBC security correspondent

one hour wey don pass

Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images

Nato ministers don continue to dey meet for Brussels dis past week to discuss how far dem suppose go ontop providing military equipment to Ukraine.

Di challenge for Nato throughout dis war na how to give dia ally Ukraine enough military support to defend demsef without getting involved for di conflict and find demsef at war with Russia.

Ukraine goment dey clear about dia calls for help.

If na to get any chance to block di coming of Russian assault on Donbas region for east of di kontri, then dem urgently need;

• Resupply of di West Javelin, NLAW (next-generation light anti-tank weapon),
• Stinger and Starstreak anti-tank
• And anti-aircraft missiles wey dia forces don already bin dey use to such effect for dis war.

Although dat much dey come but Ukraine want more.

Dem want tanks, warplanes, drones and advanced missile air defence systems to counter Russia increasing use of air strikes and long-range missiles wey dey steadily reduce Ukraine strategic stores of fuel and oda essentials.

So many pipo fit begin to ask, wetin exactly dey hold Nato back? Di answer na escalation.

Risk dey say Russia fit use tactical (dat na short range) nuclear weapons or di conflict fit spread beyond Ukraine borders to cause wider European war, dey constantly for di minds of western leaders and here di risk dey dangerously high.

So how exactly dis Russia-Ukraine war fit escalate into wider pan-European conflict wey fit drag in Nato?

E get some number of potential scenarios wey no doubt go dey di minds of pipo for Western defence ministries.

Here na just three of dem:

• 1. If Ukrainian forces fire Nato-supplied anti-ship missile for Odesa and e come go hit and sink one Russian warship offshore for di Black Sea wit di loss of nearly 100 sailors and dozens of marines. Death toll wey plenti like dis for just one single strike go dey very strange and Putin go come dey under pressure to respond in some form.
• 2. If Russian strategic missile strike, target supply convoy of military hardware wey dey cross from one Nato Kontri, like Poland or Slovakia, into Ukraine. If pipo injure or die on Nato side of di border, e fit trigger Article 5 of Nato constitution, bringing di entire alliance to di defence of di kontri wey Russia attack.
• 3. If in di middle of serious fighting for di Donbas one explosion come happun for one industrial facility wey result in di release of toxic chemical gases. While dis don already occur, no report of deaths. But if to say e result to di kind of mass casualties like in Syria use of poison gas for Ghouta and if dem find out say na Russia forces deliberately cause am, then Nato go need to respond.

E dey perfectly possible say none of all dis scenarios go happun.

Wetin di West don give so far

• over 30 kontris don provide military aid to Ukraine including €1bn (£800m) from EU and $1.7bn (£1.3bn) from US
• supplies so far limited to arms, ammunition, and defensive equipment like anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems
• Dem include Javelins wey be shoulder-held anti-tank weapons wey dey shoot heat-seeking rockets
• And Stingers wey be man-portable anti-aircraft weapons wey dem famously use for Afghanistan against Soviet aircraft
• Di Starstreak dis na UK-made portable air defence system
• Nato members fear say to supply heavier offensive equipment like tanks and fighter jets fit lead to direct open conflict with Russia
• dis neva prevent di Czechs from giving T72 tanks

President Putin don bin remind di world before now say Russia na nuclear weapons power and im dey move dia strategic nuclear deterrent up to higher degree of readiness.

America no follow dat tok as dem detect no movement of Russian nuclear warheads out of dia secure storage bunkers.

But Putin don make im point. In effect im dey say; "Russia get massive nuclear arsenal so make nobody tink say dem fit push us around.

Getty Images

What the US is sending Ukraine

• 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems that can shoot down planes

• 2,000 Javelins, shoulder-held anti-tank weapons that shoot heat-seeking rockets

• 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems, a Swedish-produced, single-use, unguided anti-tank weapon

Source: BBC

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