Signing Justin Verlander is undoubtably a risk.
He's 38, has pitched just six innings in the last two seasons, and is increasingly likely to garner a multi-year deal. There's lots of red flags there, but there's also upside.
Warning signs with Cy Young upside is a gamble this Blue Jays regime has taken before, successfully, and per reports they're trying to toss the dice again with Verlander.
The Blue Jays clearly have interest in short-term, high-upside veteran arms after reportedly missing on Noah Syndergaard, per Joel Sherman, and Verlander fits the bill. What does it mean for the Blue Jays offseason plans, and what could a Verlander signing set up later this winter? Let's find out.
If we should take anything from the last 16 months of Blue Jays rumours it's that this management checks in on everyone, and will be connected to almost every free agent because of it.
Reported offers to Andrew Heaney, Syndergaard, and now interest in Verlander should be taken with a grain of salt — especially in a free agent market where reported interest begets bigger offers.
The Blue Jays have been reportedly connected to every free agent pitcher that's signed so far this winter—Heaney, Rodriguez, and Syndergaard. The starters got three very different contracts and are three very different pitchers, but if the reports are true, Toronto is aggressive in the market.
Free agency could come to a screeching halt with MLB's collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1, so perhaps the Blue Jays, and other teams, are looking to get work done before a lockout.
However, interest in Verlander and Syndergaard also tells us the Blue Jays are open to short-term buys for high-end pitching, alongside teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels. After locking up José Berríos to a seven-year extension, not yet confirmed by the club, the Blue Jays have stabilized long-term rotation options in Berríos and Alek Manoah, and Hyun Jin Ryu around for at least the next two years.
With future rotation options secured, arms like Verlander could allow the Jays to add the potentially-elite starting pitcher they seek without committing the term the market's top starters will earn. Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman will cash in on long-term deals, while Verlander could come off the books before Toronto's young stars need paid.
The AAVs of a Ray or Verlander contract could be comparable, however, meaning a Verlander signing would present economic challenges for the Blue Jays this year, despite leaving the long-term books clean. With a high-AAV starting pitching contract, the Blue Jays could turn to trade to ensure all their holes are filled by opening day—or find the kind of free agent bargains they had a nose for last winter.
With needs at infield, starting rotation, and in the bullpen, the trade market has always seemed like a necessary tool for Toronto this winter, and a Verlander contract would only ensure that. The Jays have already been connected to Miami in a bats-for-pitching swap, have circled on José Ramirez before, and seem like a potential buyer for all the players the Oakland Athletics could be selling.
Maybe interest in Verlander is a sign of reality for one of those big trades, or maybe it's just Toronto's due diligence. Or perhaps it's all just bidding up the New York Yankees.
H/T Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, Joel Sherman
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November 18, 2021 at 04:21AM
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Where Would Justin Verlander Fit in the Blue Jays Offseason Plans? - Sports Illustrated
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